Somewhere right now, a grocery buyer is deciding how many cases of strawberries to order for next Tuesday.
That sounds like the least important decision in retail. It is one of the most expensive.
Order too many and the extras rot. That is not a small loss, it is the entire purchase price thrown in a dumpster, in a business that keeps about two cents of profit per dollar of sales.
Order too few and you run out by Saturday morning, which costs you the sale and a piece of trust with a customer who now thinks your produce section is unreliable.
And the correct answer changes every single week. Weather. Holidays. What is on sale. Whether a competitor is promoting. What the price was last week. Whether the weekend is hot.
For a hundred years that decision was made by experienced people using judgment.
